Dawson City Citizen's Forum - Yukon River Breakup at Dawson

Yukon River Breakup at Dawson (General Issues)

posted by Stephen Johnson, Dawson City, 21.04.2007, 11:13

This information was posted before and was lost due to the forum being hacked. John asked me to re-post and as the date for a last guess is drawing near, I thought I better get my butt in gear and do just that.

For the fun of it, I entered the data into an Excel spreadsheet and graphed the results. I wanted to zero in on the correct day and time, but as the graph shows there is far too much scatter about the trend line.

The R2 factor is called the regression. That is, it shows mathematically how good the data fits to the line. In this case, the fit is poor as the regression is only 0.1147. If the data fit perfectly and all data points fall exactly on the line, the regression would be 1.0000.

I show, also, the estimated day and time of breakup for 2007 which equates to May 5 at 5:17 a.m. if the breakup happens exactly on the trend line. I estimate the chances of that happening at about 30,000 to 1. So, it is anyone’s guess as to the winning day and time. Good luck to all.

By the way, I DID NOT choose May 5 at 5:17 a.m.

Also, the trend line shows the breakup happening sooner than later. Is that an indication of global warming?

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Complete thread:

Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Stephen Johnson, 21.04.2007, 11:13 (General Issues)
- Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Sandy Silver, 24.04.2007, 12:06
  - Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Stephen Johnson, 24.04.2007, 20:59
  - Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Stanley Noel, 03.05.2007, 12:10
    - Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - jonathan, 04.05.2007, 13:14
      - Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Dan Davidson, 04.05.2007, 20:26
- Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Tom_Claxton, 24.04.2007, 17:12
  - Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Stephen Johnson, 24.04.2007, 21:20
    - Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Tom_Claxton, 26.04.2007, 13:45
  - Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Molly Shore, 03.05.2010, 16:37
- Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Stephen Johnson, 05.05.2007, 09:20
  - Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Stephen Johnson, 10.03.2009, 12:53
    - Yukon River Breakup at Dawson - Stephen Johnson, 27.03.2010, 12:41